Q: What recent event has intensified the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
A: On August 6, 2024, Ukraine launched a highly successful offensive in the Kursk oblast, combining cyber-attacks, artillery, and infantry maneuvers to dismantle Russian defenses. This has resulted in the capture of approximately 400 square miles and around 2,500 Russian conscripts.
Q: How did Ukraine manage to catch Russia off guard with this offensive?
A: The Ukrainian military kept the operation highly secretive, even from its allies, to prevent Russia from preparing its defenses. This contrasts with the 2023 counter-offensive, where long notice allowed Russia to fortify its positions extensively.
Q: What is Ukraine's main objective with this offensive?
A: Ukraine's primary goal is to weaken Vladimir Putin's position within Russia by making the war increasingly unpopular and costly. By achieving significant military victories, Ukraine hopes to shift the internal dynamics in Russia, turning key figures against Putin.
Q: What are the secondary objectives of Ukraine's offensive?
A: The secondary objectives include boosting morale in Ukraine, reassuring Western allies of Ukraine's capability to win, forcing Russia to divert troops from other fronts, using Russian prisoners of war as bargaining chips, and improving Ukraine's position in potential peace negotiations.
Q: How has Russia responded to the Ukrainian offensive?
A: Vladimir Putin has downplayed the situation, cracking down on the media and issuing assurances of victory. He has put Aleksey Dyumin, a former chief bodyguard, in charge of "Operation Revenge," but has not significantly shifted troops from the Donbas region to counter the Ukrainian advance.
Q: Why hasn't Putin invoked the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to respond to Ukraine's actions?
A: Putin has not triggered Article Four of the CSTO, which would require other member states to come to Russia's defense. This could be because he doubts their willingness to help, or he may not want to acknowledge the severity of the situation.
Q: What parallels can be drawn between the current conflict and historical events?
A: We can compare Ukraine's flanking move in Kursk to Israel's counter-offensive during the 1973 Yom Kippur War and draw analogies to the end of World War I, where Germany's defeat was more about economic collapse and internal dissent than loss of territory.
Q: What challenges is Russia facing internally due to the ongoing war?
A: Outside of major cities, Russia is grappling with inflation, shortages of goods and labor, and economic strain exacerbated by conscription and emigration. These issues are increasingly difficult to conceal, even as the central bank attempts to present an optimistic economic outlook.
Q: How has Putin's position been affected by recent developments?
A: Putin's vulnerability was highlighted by the failed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin earlier in the conflict. The continued military setbacks and economic issues could eventually lead to decisive actions against Putin by those within Russia's power structure.
Q: What is the broader strategic importance of Ukraine's current military success?
A: Ukraine's success in the Kursk offensive could hasten the end of the war by weakening Putin's hold on power, thereby potentially leading to a more favorable settlement for Ukraine and its allies.
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